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ICAO:对疫情旅行禁令对经济的影响估算发布,已有70家外航停飞

国际民用航空组织(ICAO)就2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)旅行禁令对国际航空连通性造成的预计经济影响进行了一些初步预测。 

国际民航组织目前报告指出,约有70家航空公司取消了进出中国大陆的所有国际航班,另外50家航空公司缩减了相关的航空运行。这导致外国航空公司进出中国的直航旅客运力减少了80%,而中国航空公司的运力减少了40%。

疫情爆发之前,航空公司计划将2020年第一季度进出中国的国际航线运力比2019年提高9%。

国际民航组织的初步估算表明,与航空公司的预测相比,2020年第一季度客运量不增反减,整体降幅达39%至41%,或减少了1 640万至1 960万人次旅客。这相当于全球航空公司运行收入潜在减少40亿至50亿美元。 

上述估算没有包括因国际航空货运吞吐量减少对全货运航空器、机场、空中航行服务提供者运行的影响,以及对中国国内航空业务量、或者对与中国香港和澳门特别行政区或其台湾省有关的国际业务量造成的潜在影响。

有关2020年第一季度因中国航空旅行者减少而造成的与旅游相关的重大影响,国际民航组织估算日本可能损失12.9亿美元旅游收入,其次是泰国损失11.5亿美元。 

本机构同时注意到,鉴于全球所取消航班的数量和范围正在加大,预计COVID-19的影响将高于2003年严重急性呼吸系统综合征(SARS)流行病所造成的影响。季节性旅客载运率是另外一项雪上加霜的因素,因为自2003年以来,中国国际航空业务量已翻倍,其国内业务量则翻了五番。

国际民航组织强调,这些是初步得出的数字和预测,其中尚未虑及有待最终确定的对COVID-19的直接和间接经济影响的更加全面的评估。

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has produced some preliminary forecasts relating to the expected economic impacts from COVID-19 travel bans on international air connectivity.

ICAO currently reports that some 70 airlines have cancelled all international flights to/from mainland China, and that a further 50 airlines have curtailed related air operations. This has resulted in an 80% reduction of foreign airline capacity for travellers directly to/from China, and a 40% capacity reduction by Chinese airlines.

Prior to the outbreak, airlines had planned to increase capacity by 9% on international routes to/from China for the first quarter of 2020 compared to 2019.

ICAO’s preliminary estimates indicate that the first quarter of 2020 has instead seen an overall reduction ranging from 39% to 41% of passenger capacity, or a reduction of 16.4 to 19.6 million passengers compared to what airlines had projected. This equates to a potential reduction of USD 4 to 5 billion in gross operating revenues for airlines worldwide.

The above estimates do not include potential impacts due to reductions in international air freight movements on cargo-only aircraft, airports, air navigation service providers, to Chinese domestic air traffic, or to international traffic with respect to the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions of China, or its Taiwan Province.

With respect to major tourism-related impacts in the first quarter of 2020 due to reductions in Chinese air travellers, ICAO estimates that Japan could lose USD 1.29 billion in tourism revenue, followed by Thailand at USD 1.15 billion.

The agency also noted that COVID-19 impacts are expected to be greater than those caused by the 2003 SARS epidemic, in light of the higher volume and greater global extent of the flight cancellations being seen. Seasonal passenger load factors are another extenuating factor, as is the fact that China’s international air traffic has doubled, and its domestic traffic increased five-fold, since the 2003 period.

ICAO stressed that these are preliminary figures and forecasts, and that they do not yet take into account the more comprehensive assessments of direct and indirect COVID-19 economic impacts which will eventually be determined.

来源: 航数  CADATA 

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